The Sales Orphan

Craig Bernick, the President of Glen Hill Farm, a racing & breeding business based in Ocala, Florida penned a timely tweet on the eve of the September Yearling Sales. Unfortunately there will be many orphans generated by yearling buyers over the next few weeks. The game is set up to create them. Firstly, we have what is known in data science as a highly imbalanced dataset. That is, the positive case (fast racehorses) is not equivalent in the population as the negative case (a slow horse). In fact, depending on the year and how quickly or slowly the American Graded Stakes committee add or delete stakes races, an elite runner can be found by random chance in between 3% to 5% of the September S

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