How Predictive is the TDN 'Rising Star'?

From time to time the industry publication the Thoroughbred Daily News will make a young horse a 'TDN Rising Star', indicating that according to their opinion, the horse is one with considerable upside. I decided to take a look at the awarding of this status and see if it had any bias, was truly predictive of subsequent performance, or if the status had no merit at all. From the TDN web site I got a hold of the 'Rising Stars' that were assigned between th e 1st of January 2013 and the 31st of December 2014. There were 140 horses that were assigned TDN Rising Star status in the period and they were sired by 70 different stallions. First, I wanted to take a look to see if there were any obviou

Prediction at 2YO in training sales

I stumbled over some stats that the Thoroughbred Daily News had done a while back where they had asked four companies that offer predictive analytic services at the 2YO in training sales to create a 'fantasy stable' from the spring 2005 2YO Sales. Here is a link to the original data, but the four were asked to pick a stable of 20 individual horses which they tracked to see how they went on the racetrack. I noticed that the data was incomplete as while they had run the data two years later (May 2007), there were a few horses that were still racing when they did the data pull who after that went on to do well with the most notable being Diabolical, an EQB selection, who went on to compete in m

The Cobalt Threshold

Racing in Australia is under a bit of a microscope with what can only be described as a plethora of cobalt 'positives' coming to light in recent months (with apparently more to come). Cobalt Chloride use has been around for some time in the racing industry. Indeed one of the more favored 'treatments' in the North American Harness racing community has been the double of Thyroxine ( off label sold as Thyro-L, Levoxine Powder, or Levo-Powder) which has been around in racing since the 1970's and is used to jack up the metabolism of the horse to make leaner and fitter, and Cobalt Chloride to boost red blood cell numbers - fit lean horses with an abundance of red blood cells. While there is no evi

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