@2017 by Performance Genetics LLC

Cumulative Prospect Theory - Overestimating Success and Underestimating Risk in Thoroughbred Selecti

In any market where there is buying and selling, there is overestimation and underestimation of risk and reward by humans. The Thoroughbred market is no different. I had a meeting earlier in the week with Dr Jill Stowe, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Kentucky. Dr Stowe's background is in behavioural economics but her passion is in thoroughbred markets and she has published some very interesting papers on pricing in thoroughbred markets. During the conversation (Ian Tapp from Marketwatch was also there), one of the more interesting aspects discussed was the estimation of risk or the probability weighting that buyers undertake at yearling sales. The bas

Science catching up to soundness in Thoroughbreds

Most of the time I get fairly bored by newly released scientific papers. Many are just re-hashes of old work with a different angle while occasionally I see one that I am stunned that it got past the peer review process (like this paper here where they failed to validate their hypothesis in an independent sample set, but amazingly still got the paper published). This week however, a new scientific paper was published that has really piqued my interest. The paper, which you can read here, comes out of the Animal Health Trust in England and is the first paper that has identified changes in genetic code (SNPs) associated with increase fracture risk in thoroughbreds. We have previously discussed